Este está en C#, pero podría ayudarte a crear el tuyo en Java: Problema de divergencia con mi monte carlo pricer...
using System;
using System.Threading.Tasks;
using MathNet.Numerics.Distributions;
using MathNet.Numerics.Random;
namespace MonteCarlo
{
class VanillaEuropeanCallMonteCarlo
{
static void Main(string[] args)
{
const int NUM_SIMULATIONS = 10000000;
const decimal strike = 50m;
const decimal initialStockPrice = 52m;
const decimal volatility = 0.2m;
const decimal riskFreeRate = 0.05m;
const decimal maturity = 0.5m;
Normal n = new Normal();
n.RandomSource = new MersenneTwister();
VanillaEuropeanCallMonteCarlo vanillaCallMonteCarlo = new VanillaEuropeanCallMonteCarlo();
Task<decimal>[] simulations = new Task<decimal>[NUM_SIMULATIONS];
for (int i = 0; i < simulations.Length; i++)
{
simulations[i] = new Task<decimal>(() => vanillaCallMonteCarlo.RunMonteCarloSimulation(strike, initialStockPrice, volatility, riskFreeRate, maturity, n));
simulations[i].Start();
}
Task.WaitAll(simulations);
decimal total = 0m;
for (int i = 0; i < simulations.Length; i++)
{
total += simulations[i].Result;
}
decimal callPrice = (decimal)(Math.Exp((double)(-riskFreeRate * maturity)) * (double)total / (NUM_SIMULATIONS * 2));
Console.WriteLine("Call Price: " + callPrice);
Console.WriteLine("Difference: " + Math.Abs(callPrice - 4.744741008m));
}
decimal RunMonteCarloSimulation(decimal strike, decimal initialStockPrice, decimal volatility, decimal riskFreeRate, decimal maturity, Normal n)
{
decimal randGaussian = (decimal)n.Sample();
decimal endStockPriceA = initialStockPrice * (decimal)Math.Exp((double)((riskFreeRate - (decimal)(0.5 * Math.Pow((double)volatility, 2))) * maturity + volatility * (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)maturity) * randGaussian));
decimal endStockPriceB = initialStockPrice * (decimal)Math.Exp((double)((riskFreeRate - (decimal)(0.5 * Math.Pow((double)volatility, 2))) * maturity + volatility * (decimal)Math.Sqrt((double)maturity) * (-randGaussian)));
decimal sumPayoffs = (decimal)(Math.Max(0, endStockPriceA - strike) + Math.Max(0, endStockPriceB - strike));
return sumPayoffs;
}
}
}